Rags to Riches

Most fantasy owners can draft well in the early rounds but it's the mid to late rounds that separate a championship contender from an also ran. I don't understand playing it safe especially in the late rounds the owners that will pick a Donald Driver or a Hines Ward or another player that will give you WR3 or 4 stats but has very limited to no upside. Swing for the fences if you hit on one player like (Arian Foster 2010) it'll make up for the ones you miss on not to mention there's plenty of fill in players like Ward and Driver always available on waivers. In this article I'm going to tell you some players with low average draft positions that have major upside. As always this ADP data is from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and is based on a 12 team league.

Runningbacks

1. Ben Tate, Houston Texans (mid 11th round) - Foster already had minor surgery this offseason and any runningback is always a play away from ending up on the injury list. Most runners however don't have a back up as capable as Ben Tate. If Foster goes down I could see Ben Tate being a top 7 runningback per start. Houston is the perfect situation for him, Tate fits the zone blocking scheme perfectly. This guy is well worth taking a flier on from the 10th round on, even if you don't own Foster. If he gets the chance he'll explode.

2. Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars (mid 11th round) - Jennings has shown to be a pretty capable runner when given the chance and MJD's knee may very well provide him with it. There have been reports that Rashad will definitely be more involved in the offense even with a healthy MJD but with the way MJD's knee is I wouldn't be surprised to see Jennings running the show at some point. With the QB situation in Jax being a little shaky I wouldn't expect more than top 15 numbers if Rashad is given the chance but if you can get a potential top 15 back in the 11th then you'd be crazy not to.

3. Roy Helu, Washington Redskins (early 11th round) - There's a lot of hype going around Tim Hightower (6th round) right now but that's way too early for me to blow a pick on a Mike Shannahan runningback. While Shannahan's system churned out great runningbacks in Denver you could never be too sure (post Terrel Davis years) who it was going to be. I think Helu has just as much chance to be the bell cow as Hightower and he can be had 5 rounds later.

4. Javon Ringer, Tennessee Titans (late 12th round) - With how serious CJ's hold out is I wouldn't be shocked to see Ringer getting some starts and behind Tennessee's line he could definitely be a HB2. That's excellent upside from a pick where some people are getting ready to select a defense.

5. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (early 8th round) - JStew has a ton of potential he's even ran for 1,000 yards behind D-Will. I think they will have an even split and you'll be able to count on Stewart to at least be a nice flex play and if DWill struggles with the injury bug Stewart could easily be a top 10 back.

Quarterbacks

1. Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions (early 8th round) - Stafford has the chance to be an elite QB in this offense. He's surrounded by a plethora of weapons and I could see him (if he stays healthy) throwing for at least 4k and 30+ touch downs. An 8th round pick that has potential to perform like a top 5 QB how could you pass that up?

2. Sam Bradford, St.Louis Rams (mid 9th round) - Josh McDaniels has done great things with a lot worse QB's (Cassel, Orton) now he's got a young premier talent. If Bradford had stronger receiving options I'd like him more but I think he definitely has top 10 potential.

3. Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals (mid 10th round) - Kurt Warner was able to revitalize his career throwing to Fitzgerald so this is the perfect way for Kolb to start his career. Kolb is a high end QB2 and could out produce many QB's going ahead of him.

Wide Receivers

1. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans (late 6th round) - There's not a ton of value plays at receiver but Britt definitely is one. He has a top receiving skill set and I'd much rather have him over Harvin, Manningham, Boldin who are going a round before. Sure Britt is a knuckle head and may face a suspension but he has the upside to be a top 10 receiver as soon as this season.

2. AJ Green, Cincinatti Bengals (mid 8th round) - This rookie receiver is NFL ready, the only problem is his QB may not be but how many times can you get a number one receiver for an NFL team in the 8th round especially with this skill set. His draft day counterpart Julio Jones is going in the 6th as the number two option on his team.

3. Greg Little, Cleveland Browns (early 12th round) - Little is a runningback turned receiver but he is in an offense that is perfect for his skill set and has a definite shot at being the number one option in this west coast offense. He's going around the same area as Deion Branch and Steve Breaston even though he has a much higher ceiling.

4. Mike Williams, Seattle Seahawks (late 12th round) - A borderline fantasy starter in his first year back in the league last year and has the potential to follow that up this season. I wouldn't take him any earlier than this but if I can get him here I'd definitely take him especially before taking his teammate Sidney Rice in the 7th.

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (mid 7th round) - Tight End is littered with value plays but none have the jump off the page skill set that Jimmy Graham has. Jimmy could be huge in the redzone on a pass first Saints team that scores a lot.

2. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans (early 7th round) - In Houston's electric offense now fully recovered from his ACL injury, he could definitely be a TE1.

3. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (mid 12th round) - Ridiculous value from a guy who may be the number one receiver in the Panthers' offense I think he'll be a top 10 tight end and he can be had the latest.

4. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars (early 9th round) - He finished as the number 2 tight end last year and he's going in the 9th what more is there to say.

5. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (late 9th round) - An absolute beast reports have said he has been uncoverable in Patriots' practices. If it wasn't for Aaron Hernandez he'd have even better value but late in the 9th round he is an excellent value for a number one tight end.

- Michael Gibson

Fantasy Football Top QB's

With a lot of fantasy drafts set to take place over these next two weeks The Sports Bundle will be posting their player rankings. The average draft position of these players is based on a 12 team standard league.

My Draft Strategy when it comes to QB's in 2011 is to wait. Target Peyton Manning with your 4th round draft choice and hope to nail that down but if you don't it's not the end of the world. I would then turn my attention to Schaub in the 5th who I think could spring himself into the elite QB's. If you miss out on both of these guys and their great ADP's I go into full on wait mode until I grab my combo of Matt Stafford (8th) and Kevin Kolb (10th). Stafford in that detroit offense has the outside chance to have an elite season. Kolb should be right around high QB2 value throwing to Fitzy and worst case scenario you alternate the two based on match ups. In the increasingly pass first NFL there is value to be had at the QB position if you had to I wouldn't be too depressed grabbing Fitzpatrick in the 14th! as my starter.

THE NAME OF THE GAME IS WAIT

1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles (mid 1st round) - Vick is a dominant force in fantasy. No player has the potential to score as much as him week in and week out. The guy can make a bad fantasy team competitive and a good fantasy team dominant. He's the only QB I'd burn a 1st rounder. Huge injury risk but the upside is worth it.

2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (late 1st round) - What a year he had in 2010 leading title town to a Super Bowl XLV victory. He is in a premier passing offense and is a consistent high scorer every week and could definitely lead your fantasy team to a title. At his current ADP I'd have to pass though, Brady (2nd), Rivers (3rd), Brees (3rd), P.Manning (4th) should all give you similar stats and can be had way later. Rodgers is definitely the number 2 fantasy QB but with the value in later rounds I don't think I'd take him in the 1st.

3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (mid 2nd round) - A stud that is coming off a career year in 2010 and getting a new weapon in Chad Ochocinco. He should provide more of the same this year. His 2nd round ADP is still a little much for me to spend on him when there are other options in the next few rounds that'll be right there with him in scoring.

4. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (early 3rd round) - The strong aerial attack led by Rivers leads directly to big fantasy points. Insert Vincent Jackson and Rivers could be off the charts this year. If you can grab a stud HB in the 1st, a stud receiver in the 2nd, and then grab Rivers in the 3rd you'll be in a heck of a position to get that fantasy championship.

5. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (mid 4th round) - This pick is for the risk taker with Manning's neck still needing nerves to regenerate he is hardly a sure thing. His ADP however makes it increasingly attractive to take him. This is a guy in a pass first pass 2nd pass 3rd offense and could be the number one fantasy QB in 2011. Oh yeah and he can be had a full 3 rounds later! Manning a stud back and two stud receivers at the end of round 4 has the potential to be a flat out dominant fantasy team. Manning is my guy to target in this years draft. Huge Injury Risk but can be the steal of the draft.

6. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (mid 3rd round) - In Sean Payton's offense Brees has been an elite fantasy QB year after year and I don't see that changing. While the Saints may be more prone to run in the redzone this year with the addition of Ingram that won't eat into Brees' numbers too much this is the last of the elite QB's.

7. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans (late 5th round) - Houston's offense is easily one of the top in the league and with the emergence of Foster, Schaub should be able to pick defenses apart through the air.

8. Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions (mid 8th round) - Stafford has a monster arm and a ton of weapons including one of the NFL's premier receivers in Megatron. If he can stay healthy this kid could put up truly elite numbers think 4000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. He has unbelievably good draft day value and is a guy I would definitely target maybe even a round earlier than his ADP. You won't be sorry.

9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (early 6th round) - With a slowing Turner the Falcons will be more pass heavy than ever this year. Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Harry Douglas could yield big scoring for the 4th year QB.

10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (mid 5th round) - Similar situation to Matt Ryan he has great weapons in Dez Austin and Witten but I don't think he can have a shot at being truly elite. I'm starting to think Dallas feels the same way.

11. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (early 8th round) - Like this kid a lot and think he can give you top 10 numbers but I don't think he has the elite upside of Stafford or Ryan this season.

12. Sam Bradford, St.Louis Rams (mid 9th round) - In Josh McDaniels' offense Bradford will put up huge numbers I just wish he had some better targets to throw to. Wouldn't hate to have him as my fantasy starter but would rather have him as a back up.

13. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (late 6th round) - Roethlisberger is a player I'd just avoid drafting. Sure he's gonna put up somewhere around top 12 numbers but with a late 6th round ADP and so much more value to be had in the later rounds count me out. Pittsburgh still loves to run and the chance of Roeth ever putting up elite fantasy numbers are slim to none.

14. Eli Manning, New York Giants (early 9th round) - Needs to cut down on the int's still waiting on him to take the next step but you could do a lot worse than having this guy as your starter. Hakeem Nicks' emergence gives Eli some serious upside he hasn't had in the past few seasons.

15. Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals (mid 10th round) - A high upside back up with Fitzgerald to throw to this guy will put up pretty big numbers. Worried about the Cards' offensive line though.

16. Joe Flacco Baltimore Ravens (mid 10th round) - Lee Evans is supposed to be the much needed deep threat to get Flacco into high scoring fantasy totals. I don't see it Evans is on the down side of his career and Flacco will just stay average.

17. Ryan Fitzpatrick Buffalo Bills (early 14th round) - This guy can put up QB1 numbers and can be had when kickers and defenses are being picked. He is the last QB that I think has legitimate startability.

Cutler, Cassel, McNabb, Sanchez, Orton, McCoy are all about the same and I don't see any of them reaching QB1 status. Cutler (line is a mess) Cassel (run 1st offense) McNabb (lacks number one receiver new system) Sanchez (talent) Orton (John Fox offense) McCoy (talent, lacks weapons)

- Michael Gibson

Think I'll Go To Boston...

Here it is August 26th and the game's arguably most prolific runningback is still holding out. The Titans have reportedly offered to make him the highest paid halfback in the league but CJ wants top 5 playmaker money. In this regard it's hard to blame him as he is the NFL's best homerun hitter and one of the few backs to ever rush for 2,000 yards.

However I don't believe Tennessee is the team to pay him for a number of reasons. Whether the Titans want to admit it or not they are in the beginnings of a slight rebuild, Hasselbeck is an adaquate quarterback but he is there just to show the ropes to quarterback of the future Jake Locker. Locker, like most young QB's will struggle when finally thrust into the starting line up and Tennessee will most likely be a few years away from competing and CJ's shelf life may be hitting it's expiration date by then. While the argument can be made having Chris Johnson would make the transition easier for Locker, it's not worth investing that much money into the runningback position unless you're a strong competitor.

Insert the New England Patriots, a team in the exact opposite situation. The Pats feature a top 3 QB and one of the NFL's most potent passing offenses. They've had a busy offseason and appear to be going all in with the additions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Honestly this is a team that needs to go all in Brady is 34 years old and probably has 3-4 years of elite play left in him. It makes sense to be aggressive and try to capture as many Lombardi trophies as they can in that span. They are already a young team and have a stock pile of draft choices not to mention cap room so making a big Herschel Walker type deal wouldn't have the same "mortaging their future" effect as it would have on some teams. Not to mention a running threat like CJ added to that Pat's offense would bring them back to their more balanced attack they used to capture Super Bowls XXXVI XXXVIII and XXXIX. Defenses would have their handsful trying to figure out what facet of the offense to focus their attention on not to mention the dividends the added strength of the rushing attack would have in the playoffs.

So what's the solution? A trade of New Orleans' 1st rounder and New Englands' 1st rounder with a throw in of Green-Ellis or Vereen would be perfect for both sides. It gives New England the chance for one more dynastic run before the end of the Brady era and it allows the Titans to jump start their rebuilding process holding 3 1st round draft choices in the 2012 draft and putting them in position to be rising up right as Peyton Manning and the Colts' dominance are coming to a close in the AFC South. It makes too much sense..

but it'll never happen.


- Michael Gibson