Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (2010-2011: Finished 55-27, fourth in West, lost in Western Conference Finals)
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: None
Projected Starting Five:
PG Russell Westbrook
SG Thabo Sefolosha
SF Kevin Durant
PF Serge Ibaka
C Kendrick Perkins
Starting center Kendrick Perkins arrived at training camp thirty pounds lighter and in the best shape of his career, symbolizing that the Thunder means business this year. Two-time defending scoring champion Kevin Durant should challenge for MVP, and his running mate Russell Westbrook is one of the most electrifying young guards in the league. During last year’s playoffs, these two had some trouble coexisting on offense, with Westbrook taking many of the shots Durant probably should have taken. However, part of this was due to Durant’s inability to get open in a position to score. When these two are struggling to carry the offense, the Thunder can rely on sixth man James Harden, a great playmaker on the pick and roll. Serge Ibaka, already a solid defender, appears poised for a breakout year. If the Thunder can show more consistency on offense, this may be the year it can win Oklahoma City its first championship.
2. Dallas Mavericks (2010-2011: Finished 57-25, third in West, won NBA Title)
Key Additions: SF/PF Lamar Odom, SG Vince Carter
Key Losses: C Tyson Chandler, PG J.J. Barea, SF Peja Stojakovic, SG DeShawn Stevenson
Projected Starting Five:
PG Jason Kidd
SG Vince Carter
SF Shawn Marion
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Brendan Haywood
Don’t expect a championship hangover. The Mavs lost a couple of game-changers in J.J. Barea and Tyson Chandler in the offseason, but added former All-Star Vince Carter and quality sixth man Lamar Odom to help make up some ground. If Carter plays within the offense and takes smart shots, he can fit in really well in Rick Carlisle’s pass happy offense. Even at age 38, Jason Kidd still has some gas left in the tank, and it helps to play with superstar Dirk Nowitzki, who should continue to be an offensive force for years to come. Jason Terry, another key reserve, is one of the best shooters in the game, and the vocal leader of the team. The Mavs should be one of the top teams in the league during the regular season, but the drop off at the center position from Tyson Chandler to Brendan Haywood will be a huge reason why they will not win another title.
3. Memphis Grizzlies (2010-2011: Finished 46-36, eight in West, lost in second round)
Key Addition: SG Josh Selby
Key Loss: SF Shane Battier
Projected Starting Five:
PG Mike Conley
SG Tony Allen
SF Rudy Gay
PF Zach Randolph
C Marc Gasol
Memphis shocked a lot of people by upsetting the number one seeded Spurs in last year’s playoffs, but it was no fluke; this is a team on the rise. Resigning Marc Gasol in the offseason was a great move, as he and double-double machine Zach Randolph form a dominant duo in the post. Rudy Gay, a stat-stuffer who missed the playoffs last year with a shoulder injury, returns and looks to live up to his All-Star potential. The key to the Grizzlies success last year was their stout defense, and they lost a great perimeter defender in Shane Battier. However, defensive specialist Tony Allen can guard the outside, while Gay blocks shots and Gasol and Randolph play strong interior defense. The Grizzlies will not sneak up on anyone this year, but are one of the scariest teams in the West.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (2010-2011, Finished 32-50, thirteenth in West)
Key Additions: PG Chris Paul, PG/SG Chauncey Billups, SF Caron Butler, PF Reggie Evans
Key Losses: SG Eric Gordon, C Chris Kaman
Projected Starting Five:
PG Chris Paul
SG Chauncey Billups
SF Caron Butler
PF Blake Griffin
C DeAndre Jordan
The “Lob City” Clippers became instant contenders when they acquired superstar point guard Chris Paul in a blockbuster trade. Paul is the best pure point guard in the game, and his lob passes to high-flying Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan make the Clippers the League Pass team of the year. However, highlights will only carry the Clippers so far, and they have a long way to go as a team. Blake Griffin is already a great scorer and rebounder, but does not do much else. If he can improve his jump shot and become more of a defensive presence, the Clippers could be scary good. Newly acquired Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler will have plenty of open shots due to Paul and Griffin, and need to knock them down to keep the pressure off of the stars. Billups can be a great veteran leader on this team, but needs to stay within the offense and not always look for his own shot. Jordan is an up and coming player who will greatly benefit from Paul’s presence and be counted upon to protect the rim and grab rebounds, especially when Paul and Billups struggle guarding bigger guards. The sky is the limit for the new look Clippers.
5. Los Angeles Lakers (2010-2011, Finished 57-25, second in West, lost in second round)
Key Additions: SF Jason Kapono, PF Josh McRoberts, PF Troy Murphy
Key Losses: SF/PF Lamar Odom, SG Shannon Brown
Projected Starting Five:
PG Derek Fisher
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Devin Ebanks
PF Pau Gasol
C Andrew Bynum
While the other Los Angeles team enjoyed an exciting offseason, the Lakers only got worse. It started with a questionable hire of head coach Mike Brown, and then trading away Lamar Odom without receiving much in return was not popular among Laker nation. Kobe Bryant is still one of the top players in the game, but at age 33, he does not scare other teams the way he used to. Pau Gasol went through some struggles in the playoffs, but looks to bounce back and is still one of the top big men in the game. Andrew Bynum will be asked to play more minutes than ever, but if his knee holds up, he is a dominant force in the paint. The Lakers hope second-year player Devin Ebanks can knock down shots and help Kobe with some perimeter scoring. There are still rumors of Dwight Howard or Steve Nash becoming a Laker in the near future, but the Lakers current core cannot lead them to another championship.
6. San Antonio Spurs (2010-2011, Finished 61-21, first in West, lost in first round)
Key Additions: SF Kawhi Leonard, PG TJ Ford, PG Cory Joseph
Key Losses: PG George Hill, PF/C Antonio McDyess
Projected Starting Five:
PG Tony Parker
SG Manu Ginobili
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Tim Duncan
C DeJuan Blair
San Antonio returns all five starters from last year’s team which was the best regular season team in the West, but I don’t see head coach Gregg Popovich going all out this year to win another regular season crown. The Spurs will be glad to sacrifice a few wins to give Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili some extra rest, even some nights off. On these nights, look for defensive stud Kawhi Leonard and rookie guard Cory Joseph to get extended minutes along with the talented Tiago Splitter to prepare for the future. Still, the Spurs are one of the best structured teams in the league and will capture one of the final few playoff spots. In the offseason, San Antonio considered waiving Richard Jefferson, but ultimately decided to keep him, showing that they are still in it to win it. A well-rested Spurs team in the playoffs could still be a contender.
7. Denver Nuggets (2010-2011, Finished 50-32, fifth in West, lost in first
round)
Key Additions: PG Andre Miller, SG Rudy Fernandez, PF Kenneth Faried, SG/SF Jordan Hamilton
Key Losses: PG Raymond Felton, SG J.R. Smith, SF Wilson Chandler, PF Kenyon Martin
Projected Starting Five:
PG Ty Lawson
SG Arron Afflalo
SF Danilo Gallinari
PF Nene
C Timofey Mozgov
Despite the fact that the Nuggets lack a superstar, they’ll be seen in the playoffs once again, probably in the 5-7 range. Resigning Arron Afflalo and Nene were both necessary moves as these guys are all about doing whatever it takes to win, even if they were slightly overpaid. With Kenyon Martin still overseas, the Nuggets lose a little toughness off of last year’s team, but they will still be able to score the ball after finishing as the most efficient offense in the league last year. Point guards Ty Lawson and Andre Miller complement each other well, with Lawson being the speedy fast break guy and Miller being more methodical. However, unless shooters Danilo Gallinari and Rudy Fernandez shoot lights out, I don’t see the Nuggets making much noise in the playoffs.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (2010-2011, Finished 48-34, sixth in West, lost in first round)
Key Additions: SG Jamal Crawford, C Kurt Thomas, PF Craig Smith, PG Raymond Felton
Key Losses: SG Rudy Fernandez, PG Andre Miller, SG Brandon Roy
Projected Starting Five:
PG Raymond Felton
SG Wesley Matthews
SF Gerald Wallace
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
C Marcus Camby
Not many coaches are better at dealing with adversity than Portland head coach Nate McMillan, who found out recently that key reserve Brandon Roy would be forced into retirement, and that talented center Greg Oden would miss yet another season due to injury. McMillan will make the most with what he has, which looks to be a pretty good defensive team. Gerald Wallace is all over the court grabbing rebounds and blocking shots, and Marcus Camby is still a rebounding machine. Raymond Felton will not be asked to be a primary scorer, but will need to get the ball to the Blazers best player, power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge has the ability to take over games with his back to the basket scoring, and will be asked to carry the team this year. Jamal Crawford was a good pickup for the Trail Blazers and should provide instant offense off of the bench. Look for Portland to ride the best home court advantage in the NBA to its fourth consecutive playoff appearance.
9. Utah Jazz- Will battle for 8 seed, Frontcourt is set for future between Jefferson, Favors, Kanter, Millsapp. Need Miles, Bell, Hayward to make shots
10. Houston Rockets- In the running for 8 seed, Martin won’t blow you away but is efficient scorer, Scola is an underrated big man new coach Kevin McHale can work with. Still unhappy about denied trade because Stern never gave clear explanation
11. Phoenix Suns- Nash still has it, led untalented team to 40 wins last year,
won’t finish in cellar because its hard to see Nash, Grant Hill tanking for a better draft pick
12. Golden State Warriors- New coach Mark Jackson is good for Curry and Ellis, one of top backcourts in league, but is not an in-your-face type of coach, team will get killed on the glass
13. Sacramento Kings- not enough shots for Jimmer, Salmons, Evans and Thornton, but will get hot from outside some games, Jimmer could challenge for rookie of year, Cousins is beast in the making
14. New Orleans Hornets- Can’t replace Paul, also lost David West, need an owner to buy team from NBA, need players like Aminu and Landry to keep improving, Eric Gordon is best player but not great
15. Minnesota Timberwolves- Talented but Kevin Love is only consistent player, logjam at forward position, Rubio needs time to learn teammates tendencies, Beasley is an inefficient scorer who needs to make plays for others
- Phillip Bullock
You will probably see superstars Deron Williams and Dwight Howard of the Eastern Conference on the floor together in tonight’s NBA All-Star Game, a preview of what you can expect to see for years to come in most likely either Dallas or Brooklyn. Despite daily trade rumors involving Howard’s future, he has his Magic sitting 5th in the East and managed to make it to the All-Star break to play the game in front of his home fans. Meanwhile, Williams is just biding his time in New Jersey, quietly having another All-Star year and waiting until he can team up with another superstar and compete for a championship. With the March 15 trade deadline approaching, the Nets should be throwing whatever they can at the Magic in attempts to lure in Howard, because otherwise Dallas will have a great deal of cap space and would have the best shot at signing both Williams and Howard in free agency this summer. After the Mavericks decided not to go all out to resign Tyson Chandler last summer, it was clear they were thinking more about the long-term future than repeating as NBA champs. Apparently, during the offseason, Williams told some members of the Mavs that he would love to return to his hometown and team up with fellow superstar Dirk Nowitzki. If the Nets can’t entice the Magic with their future draft picks and promising players like Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks to trade for Howard, then Williams probably won’t bother hanging around in Brooklyn for his player option in 2012-2013. This summer, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Brian Cardinal, and Delonte West become free agents, and the Mavs have a team option with Lamar Odom’s $8.2 million contract. I would expect the Mavs to try to resign Terry relatively cheap because of his valuable bench scoring and tenure with the team, but probably would not throw a great deal of money towards Kidd as Rodrigue Beaubois has proven to be a serviceable backup point guard. If keeping Lamar Odom hindered the Mavs chances of getting Howard and Williams, I would expect owner Mark Cuban to let him go without thinking twice. The most obvious move would be to amnesty Brendan Haywood’s horrible $8.3 million contract. I believe Cuban is counting on Williams coming to Dallas this offseason, which would create the best situation for Howard to compete for multiple titles. Howard would be able to come to Dallas and play with two other superstars but would still be viewed as the best player on the team and get plenty of touches on offense. This would form another “Big 3” in the NBA for years to come, as Howard, at age 26, is already far and away the best big man in the game. Williams, 27, is the 3rd best point guard in the league, and although Dirk is 33, his game doesn’t rely much on quickness or athleticism, leaving him a few more years playing at an All-Star level. Williams/Howard would be a better point guard/big man duo than even Chris Paul/Blake Griffin, and grouping them with a future Hall of Famer could create a force that could compete with the Thunder and Clippers in the West and maybe have a couple more rematches with the Miami Heat in the Finals. If the trade deadline passes and the Nets and Magic haven’t made a deal, I believe the Howard/Williams sweepstakes is the Mavs to lose as long as Cuban’s contracts can somewhat compete with whatever the Nets offer. 
